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Case study – Wind

Chinese wind turbine original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) such as Goldwind, Mingyang, and Envision now account for roughly two-thirds of global annual installed wind capacity. These companies now occupy four of the top five global rankings for installations, with Vestas, the only Western OEM, ranking fifth. Yet as recently as 2020, Western OEMs held the leading […]

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Case study – Batteries

Batteries are the ultimate ‘dual use’ technology. In addition to their application in energy storage systems and EVs, batteries have emerged as critical components of modern warfare. They are a fundamental enabler of high-tech and distributed military operations. As combat is increasingly electrified, superiority depends more on sensors, unmanned and autonomous systems, and silent operations. […]

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Espionage

China will almost certainly use its low-carbon technology to conduct espionage against key European intelligence priorities, including defence sites and capabilities. Suggesting otherwise underestimates the scale and ambition of China’s intelligence-gathering efforts. China will exploit sensors embedded in its technology to identify operational patterns, personnel, and capabilities at military sites. Offshore energy infrastructure may help […]

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Defence supply chain dependency

Europe’s defence supply chains share considerable overlap with the low-carbon sector. They rely on many of the same materials, components, technologies, and manufacturing techniques. So as China’s dominance of low-carbon technologies grows, Europe’s defence sector will very likely also become more dependent on China. There is a particular vulnerability around rare earth magnets and batteries. […]

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Domestic political pushback

Though it will vary by country, Europe is likely to face growing domestic political pushback against China’s dominance in low‑carbon technologies. Issues involving national security and China tend to attract significant attention from opposition and ‘back bench’ politicians, industry groups, and the media. These dynamics often create sustained political challenges for governments. Our interviews highlighted […]

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US repercussions

Perhaps the most overlooked national security risk arising from Europe’s use of Chinese low-carbon technology comes not from the technology itself, but from the US’s likely hostile response to those who embrace it.  We assess that the US will likely seek to reverse the growing presence of Chinese technology in European markets. The Trump administration […]

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Increased Chinese geopolitical influence

As China’s importance to Europe’s energy system grows, so will its ability to affect European strategic calculus and decision-making. The question of whether China would disrupt European systems is less important than whether it could. Once China has the capability to cause significant disruption – and once it has demonstrated its preparedness to use economic […]

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Case study – Solar

In 2014, EU solar module manufacturing supplied around 25% of European installations. European production capacity was just under 2 GW compared to 7-8 GW of solar panels deployed. By 2024, European manufacturing had increased only three fold, but installations had risen to around 60 GW with Europe importing 98% of its solar panels from China. […]

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Long-term economic harm

Most European governments now include prosperity and economic security within their definition of national security. Yet they appear slow to recognise and address the long-term economic harm that will very likely arise from an overdependence on Chinese low-carbon technology. The most obvious risk is in low-carbon technology manufacturing. Unless the trend towards China’s dominance is […]

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Case study – Inverters

Inverters convert the direct current (DC) power produced by solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries into alternating current (AC) and are increasingly used to perform a broader grid stabilisation function. US national guidance explicitly flags inverters and associated control systems as vectors through which cyber attackers could disrupt distributed solar and, at scale, threaten grid […]

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